Geen enkele Europese kuststaat wil brandend container schip ’MSC Flaminia’ toelaten tot haven

[Thor]

Even een overzicht van de weersomstandigheden en de verwachtingen voor het gebied waar de MSCFlaminia momenteel zit.

Niet al te best weer daar om onder dergelijke omstandigheden daar te moeten gaande houden. Alles rood(stormwaarschuwing) in die gebieden.


Sole
Gale warnings - Issued: 1824 UTC Thu 16 Aug
Southerly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 imminent
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Thu 16 Aug
Wind
Southerly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first in east, but southwesterly 4 or 5 in west.
Sea State
Rough or very rough.
Weather
Rain or thundery showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor.

FitzRoy
Gale warnings - Issued: 1539 UTC Thu 16 Aug
Southerly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 imminent
Shipping Forecast - Issued: 1625 UTC Thu 16 Aug
Wind
Southerly 6 to gale 8, occasionally severe gale 9 at first in east, but southwesterly 4 or 5 in northwest.
Sea State
Rough or very rough.
Weather
Rain or thundery showers.
Visibility
Moderate or good, occasionally poor

[Thor]

Gale warnings

Sea area gale warnings, issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency.
Last updated on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 1827 UTC.

All gale warnings currently in force

Plymouth, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 0344 UTC
      Southerly gale force 8 expected soon

Biscay, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 0344 UTC
      Southerly gale force 8 expected soon

Fitzroy, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 1539 UTC
      Southerly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 imminent

Sole, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 1824 UTC
      Southerly severe gale force 9 decreasing gale force 8 imminent

Lundy, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 0946 UTC
      Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon

Fastnet, issued on Wednesday 15 August 2012 at 2149 UTC
      Southerly storm force 10 now decreased severe gale force 9, decreasing gale force 8 imminent

Irish Sea, issued on Thursday 16 August 2012 at 0946 UTC
      Southeasterly gale force 8 expected soon

[Thor]

Shipping forecast
The shipping forecast issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, on Friday 17 August 2012 at 0405 UTC
There are warnings of gales in Plymouth, FitzRoy, Sole, Lundy, Fastnet.

The General synopsis at midnight
 
Low southern Ireland 1001 expected Hebrides 999 by midnight tonight. New high expected Biscay 1014 by same time
 
The area forecasts for the next 24 hours

Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire
Southeasterly 3 or 4, increasing 5 to 7, perhaps gale 8 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough later in Viking. Occasional rain. Good, occasionally poor

Forties, Cromarty, Forth
Southeast, veering south, 5 or 6, occasionally 7 in Forties. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough later in Forties. Occasional rain, fog patches later. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor later

Tyne, Dogger, Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames
Southeast, veering south, 5 to 7, occasionally 4 at first. Slight or moderate. Rain or showers. Good, occasionally poor

Dover, Wight
Southeast, veering southwest, 4 or 5. Slight or moderate. Showers. Good, occasionally poor

Portland, Plymouth, Northwest Biscay
Southerly 6 or 7, occasionally gale 8 at first in Plymouth, decreasing 4 or 5. Moderate or rough, occasionally very rough except in Portland. Occasional rain, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Southeast Biscay
Variable 4. Moderate, occasionally rough at first. Fair. Good

Trafalgar (Issued 2315 UTC Thu 16 Aug)
Southwesterly 5 or 6, decreasing 3 or 4. Moderate or rough. Thundery rain. Good, occasionally poor

FitzRoy
Southerly, but cyclonic at first in northwest, 6 to gale 8, decreasing 4 or 5. Rough or very rough. Occasional thundery rain. Good, occasionally poor

Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea
Southerly or southeasterly, but cyclonic for a time, 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 at first except in Irish Sea. Moderate or rough, occasionally very rough except in Irish Sea. Occasional thundery rain, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Shannon
South or southeast 4 or 5, occasionally 6 later. Moderate or rough. Showers. Good, occasionally moderate

Rockall
East 4 or 5, becoming variable 4. Moderate, occasionally rough at first. Showers. Good, occasionally moderate

Malin
Southeast 5 or 6, veering west 3 or 4. Slight or moderate. Rain or showers. Good, occasionally poor

Hebrides, Bailey
Easterly, backing northerly, 4 or 5, then becoming cyclonic in Hebrides. Moderate or rough. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Fair Isle, Faeroes
East or southeast 3 or 4, increasing 5 or 6. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough later. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

South-east Iceland
Northeasterly 5 or 6, occasionally 7 later. Moderate, occasionally rough. Occasional rain, fog patches. Moderate, occasionally very poor

Het blijft nog even niet al te best voor de mannen daar.

[Thor]

MSC Flaminia moving west under tow
Thursday, August 16, 2012 - 9:26:00 AM -  

August 16 afternoon: MSC Flaminia moving in western direction under tow, convoy was in position 50.09N 017.49W at 01:37 UTC today, at a course 272 deg speed 4.3 knots. I’ve been mistaken assuming MSC Flaminia proceeds under own power, judging from the French video http://www.odin.tc/news/read.asp?articleID=1205 – I’ve had my doubts about the stern trails, but confused into mistake by a tug too much to starboard, and too high speed. A specialist in towage said after watching video, that MSC Flaminia is definitely under tow, propeller stopped, the tug to the starboard is doing the towage. It’s the second time I mistake MSC Flaminia for sailing under own power, maybe because I believe vessel is capable of sailing under own power, I can’t see why not.
Too many guesses and assumptions are just inevitable in stories like this one, when the truth is shrouded in scanty info and allusions. Still, it’s hard to believe in a nice smooth story MSC and NSB are trying to tell, with main culprits being Coastal States and bad weather. There are some facts which can’t be explained by the MSC and NSB story, just can’t.

M.B.

[Thor]

MSC Flaminia moving in SW direction. Vessel to be escorted by Navy and Air Force.
Friday, August 17, 2012 - 10:45:00 AM -

August 17 afternoon: MSC Flaminia moving in SW direction under tow, convoy was in position 49.05N 019.04W at 01:57 UTC today, at a course 224 deg, sailing some 80 nautical miles during last 24 hours. No news from NSB, though what can they say? That the vessels move deep into the ocean hoping to find there nice quiet area without strong winds and high waves?
Le Monde took an interest in the story (I selfishly assume, not without some reference to my investigation), and came to the same conclusion – there is something very strange on board of the vessel, so strange and so potentially dangerous, that the EU authorities still can’t agree on a refuge permit. Le Monde found out something more exciting than bare speculations – if MSC Flaminia will be permitted to be towed to either Rotterdam or Zeebrugge, she will proceed through English Channel under a very impressive escort of tugs, Navy ships and Air cover. Any doubts yet about some secretive cargo on board of the vessel?
It may not be military or some clandestine something, it may simply be civilian cargo but so dangerous, that MSC, NSB and EU authorities prefer to keep us in the dark, for our own good, of course. Though my guess is, they care not so much for our comfort, as for their own, afraid clients will start asking the carrier some unpleasant questions about the practice of carrying such scary goods next to their harmless family belongings or vintage cars.

Speculaties.

[Thor]

Het weer wordt beter in de buurt,wel nog behoorlijk wat zeegang.

Shipping forecast

The shipping forecast issued by the Met Office, on behalf of the Maritime and Coastguard Agency, on Friday 17 August 2012 at 1625 UTC

There are warnings of gales in Viking.

 
The General synopsis at midday
 
Low Malin 1002 expected Bailey 1001 by midday tomorrow
 
The area forecasts for the next 24 hours

Viking, North Utsire, South Utsire, Forties

Southeasterly 5 to 7, occasionally gale 8 at first in Viking, veering southerly or southwesterly 4 or 5. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough at first. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Cromarty, Forth

South 4 or 5. Slight or moderate. Showers, fog patches developing. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Tyne, Dogger, Fisher, German Bight, Humber, Thames

South or southeast 5 or 6, occasionally 7 at first in Tyne and Dogger, veering south or southwest 4 later. Slight or moderate, occasionally rough at first in Dogger. Rain or thundery showers. Good, occasionally poor

Dover, Wight

Southeast 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first, becoming variable 3 or 4. Slight or moderate. Showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Portland, Plymouth, Northwest Biscay

Southerly or southwesterly 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first in west Plymouth, becoming variable 3 or 4. Slight or moderate in Portland, otherwise moderate or rough. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Southeast Biscay

Variable 3 or 4. Slight or moderate. Fair. Moderate or good

Trafalgar (Issued 2315 UTC Thu 16 Aug)

Southwesterly 5 or 6, decreasing 3 or 4. Moderate or rough. Thundery rain. Good, occasionally poor

FitzRoy, Sole, Lundy, Fastnet, Irish Sea

Southerly or southwesterly 4 or 5, occasionally 6 except in west Fastnet. Moderate or rough. Rain or thundery showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Shannon

South or southeast 4, increasing 5 or 6. Moderate or rough. Showers. Moderate or good

Rockall, Malin

Variable 3 or 4, becoming mainly south or southeast 4 or 5, occasionally 6 later. Moderate, occasionally rough in southwest Rockall. Rain or thundery showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Hebrides

Cyclonic becoming southwesterly 4 or 5, occasionally 6 at first in east. Moderate. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate or good, occasionally very poor

Bailey

Northeasterly becoming cyclonic, 4 or 5, increasing 6 or 7 later in north. Moderate or rough. Rain or showers, fog patches. Moderate, occasionally very poor

Fair Isle

East 5 to 7, veering south or southwest 4 or 5. Moderate or rough becoming slight or moderate. Rain at times, fog patches. Moderate, occasionally very poor

Faeroes

Northeasterly becoming cyclonic 4 or 5, increasing 6 or 7 in north. Moderate, occasionally rough later in north. Rain at times, fog patches. Moderate, occasionally very poor

South-east Iceland

Northeasterly, 4 at first in south, otherwise 5 to 7, perhaps gale 8 later. Moderate or rough. Rain or drizzle. Moderate or poor

[Thor]

Even ter verduidelijking het is niet uitzonderlijk dat er soms heel wat water door de zee moet gaan voordat de bevoegde authoriteiten toestemming geven om ergens in de buurt van een behoorlijke ankerplaats of haven te kunnen komen.
Hier ligt het nog wat complexer want waarschijnlijk zullen meerdere landen toestemmingen moeten geven als de sleep niet in de UK terecht zou kunnen.

[Alexander]

Dat begrijp ik.

Bijkomend bezwaar op dit moment is dat de brand niet uit is. Er bestaat brandweertechnisch bijvoorbeeld nog een risico op het vrijkomen van giftige rook. Bij een zuidwesten wind trekt dit in een haven als Rotterdam al gauw over land. Bij het ontleden van de containerberg/puinhoop bestaat er ook nog een kans op chemische reactie's of zelfs een explosie. Niemand zit te wachten op een giftige "bom" in je haven.

De rederij en berger zullen dus met een goede risicoscan moeten komen waarbij dit soort risico's afgewogen zijn.

[Thor]

Dat begrijp ik.

Bijkomend bezwaar op dit moment is dat de brand niet uit is. Er bestaat brandweertechnisch bijvoorbeeld nog een risico op het vrijkomen van giftige rook. Bij een zuidwesten wind trekt dit in een haven als Rotterdam al gauw over land. Bij het ontleden van de containerberg/puinhoop bestaat er ook nog een kans op chemische reactie's of zelfs een explosie. Niemand zit te wachten op een giftige "bom" in je haven.

De rederij en berger zullen dus met een goede risicoscan moeten komen waarbij dit soort risico's afgewogen zijn.

Precies ! Ik vermoed ook dat Rotterdam niet echt zit te wachten op het schip en alles wat er dan nog gaat volgen.
Het lijkt mij niet onaannemelijk dat het allemaal naar Bremerhaven zal gaan, daar hebben ze een mooie containerkade direct aan open water. Containerkaden en terreinen zijn duur dus je moet een hoge doorloopsnelheid van schepen hebben,daarom zit niet iedereen te wachten op een "lastige" klant en natuurlijk al die onderzoekers,autoriteiten,o.a. de Duitse etc. want er zijn naast de materiele schade ook dodelijke slachtoffers te betreuren. Maar MSC en NSB zijn grotere spelers op containergebied en daar moet je als het even kan rekening mee houden.

Die risicoscan moet  zeker worden gemaakt.

[Alexander]

Precies. Het is een lastige klant en de schade is enorm. En de klus is nog steeds niet onder controle met onzekere factoren.

Maar grote spelers in de markt, commerciele belangen, politieke druk, etc. kunnen beslissingen wel beinvloeden verwacht ik.

OVerigens is het weer er nog steeds niet beter dus kunnen de bergers ook weinig uitrichten nu.