Buiten de windhoos/tornado in Groningen vanavond wordt op
ESTOFEX (European Storm Forecast Experiment) wordt inmiddels gesproken over een kans op F2 en F3 Tornado's in Belgie, Nederland, Noord-Frankrijk en Duitsland!
Forecast Update
Valid: Sun 03 Aug 2008 19:00 to Mon 04 Aug 2008 06:00 UTC
Issued: Sun 03 Aug 2008 20:12
Forecaster: SCHLENCZEK
...Northern France, Benelux countries, western-central Germany...
A frontal wave has developed over the British Channel and will move across northern France and Belgium / Netherlands towards northwestern Germany and the Baltic Sea until Monday 06 UTC. Along its cold front, a convective line developed over northwestern France, now moving ENE-ward towards Belgium and western Germany. Ahead of the frontal wave that is currently located over southeastern England, SFC winds have backed to south over northern France with increasing LLS and SRH1 forecast around 400 J/kg. In the last couple of hours, discrete cells with rotating updrafts evolved over Belgium and likely also over the Netherlands and northern France.
Current thinking is that some weak and probably a few strong (F2 - F3) tornadoes could occur both with more isolated as well as linearly organized storms. Apart from tornadoes, some severe gusts are expected in the whole LVL1 / LVL2 area as well. As a few hundred J/kg MLCAPE are forecast over central Germany, strong QG forcing should allow tornadic storms and isolated severe gusts over western and central Germany during the night hours.
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ps.
F2-tornado: (182-253 km/h) Vrij grote tornado met flinke schade. Daken kunnen van huizen geblazen worden, campers en stacaravans worden omver geblazen, grote takken breken af, sommige bomen worden ontworteld en kleinere objecten worden als projectielen gelanceerd.
F3-tornado: (254-332 km/h) Zware tornado met zware schade. Daken en muren van goedgebouwde huizen begeven het, veel bomen worden ontworteld en zelfs zware auto‚s worden van de grond getild.
bron:
www.kennislink.nl
